Spain Wiretap

France enters the 2026 World Cup with the most valuable roster in the tournament at $1.76 billion, according to squad valuation data from Transfermarkt, with England ($1.507 billion) and Spain ($1.449 billion) ranked second and third.

Portugal, Germany, and Brazil round out the six nations surpassing the $1 billion threshold in total squad value.

Spain's Lamine Yamal and Norway's Erling Haaland share the top individual valuation at $238 million. Haaland alone accounts for roughly 33 percent of Norway's total $691 million squad value. Kylian Mbappe ranks third among individual players and leads France's roster.

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia ranks seventh among individual players but will not appear in the tournament after Georgia failed to qualify.

2026 World Cup Squad Valuations

1. France: $1.760 billion
2. England: $1.507 billion
3. Spain: $1.449 billion
4. Portugal: $1.173 billion
5. Germany: $1.148 billion
6. Brazil: $1.049 billion
7. Netherlands: $962.78 million
8. Argentina: $940.13 million
9. Norway: $691.15 million
10. Belgium: $624.34 million
11. Ivory Coast: $610.54 million
12. Morocco: $561.43 million
13. Senegal: $543.84 million
14. Turkiye: $543.61 million
15. Sweden: $492.18 million
16. Uruguay: $466.10 million
17. Croatia: $448.16 million
18. United States: $438.90 million
19. Ecuador: $432.63 million
20. Switzerland: $382.49 million
21. Colombia: $350.46 million
22.Japan: $320.74 million
23. Algeria: $295.44 million
24. Austria: $278.53 million
25. Ghana: $269.50 million
26. Canada: $226.15 million
27. Mexico: $220.63 million
28. Czechia: $216.41 million
29. Scotland: $195.79 million
30. Paraguay: $176.70 million
31. Bosnia-Herzegovina: $174.34 million
32. DR Congo: $165.49 million
33. South Korea: $159.91 million
34. Egypt: $133.95 million
35. Uzbekistan: $98.13 million
36. Australia: $89.07 million
37. Tunisia: $80.44 million
38. Haiti: $64.29 million
39. Cape Verde: $62.68 million
40. South Africa: $56.64 million
41. Saudi Arabia: $46.78 million
42. Panama: $39.73 million
43. New Zealand: $39.50 million
44. Iran: $36.86 million
45. Curacao: $29.65 million
46. Iraq: $24.38 million
47. Jordan: $23.58 million
48. Qatar: $22.92 million

Goldman Sachs has released its 2026 World Cup probability model, giving Spain a 26 percent chance of claiming the title, followed by France at 19 percent and Argentina at 14 percent. The report was led by chief economist and Global Investment Research head Jan Hatzius.

The bank's model analyzes nearly 20,000 matches since 1978, factoring in historical performance, scoring output, team momentum and geography. Economists specifically cautioned that Argentina may underperform due to a "winner's slump" following their 2022 championship.

Goldman also projected Round of 16 advancement probabilities for all three host nations: Mexico leads at 68 percent, Canada at 50 percent and the United States at 39 percent.

The firm acknowledges the model's limitations. Economists noted it does not fully account for player fitness, managerial experience or other variables, describing soccer's outcome as carrying "inherent unpredictability."

Goldman's track record is mixed. In 2018, the bank projected Brazil as the favorite after one million simulations. Brazil was eliminated in the quarterfinals, with France ultimately defeating Croatia in the final.

Independent experts urge caution when interpreting the findings. Jacek Dmochowski, an engineering professor at The City College of New York, called it a "fun exercise" that falls well short of online prediction markets in accuracy.

"The information that is going into (Goldman's) model is a tiny sliver of all the information that's in the possession of the millions of people that have bet into (online) prediction markets," said Dmochowski.

Both Polymarket and Bet365 currently place Spain's winning odds below 20 percent, in line with Goldman's general hierarchy but differing on specific figures.

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Spain coach Luis de la Fuente said Wednesday he expects Lamine Yamal to be available for the team's World Cup opener against Cape Verde in Atlanta on June 15, though the 18-year-old will sit out Thursday's warmup match against Iraq in A Coruna.

"If nothing changes, he could be ready to play on June 15," De la Fuente said. "It doesn't mean that for sure he will play, we'll see. Maybe a few minutes, maybe just practice so he can improve his condition for the second match. We will have to evaluate."

Yamal suffered a left hamstring injury while converting a penalty kick for Barcelona in a Spanish league match on April 22. The Barcelona forward said this week he feared missing the tournament entirely and prayed he would recover in time.

De la Fuente also confirmed that Nico Williams and Victor Munoz, both carrying injuries, will sit out Thursday's match alongside players who featured in last week's Champions League final.

Spain's final warmup match is scheduled against Peru in Mexico on Monday. De la Fuente declined to specify who would feature in that fixture.

Yamal is expected to be the focal point of a Spain side seeking its second World Cup title. The defending European champions have not advanced past the round of 16 at the World Cup since their lone triumph in 2010.

After opening against Cape Verde in Group H, Spain face Saudi Arabia on June 21 in Atlanta and Uruguay on June 26 in Guadalajara.

"We are all excited to get started and try to do well at the tournament," De la Fuente said.

Spain are overall favorites to win the World Cup.

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Spain head coach Luis de la Fuente announced his 26-man World Cup squad Monday, with no Real Madrid players selected for the first time in the country's 92-year history of competing in the tournament.

Defender Dean Huijsen, the last Madrid player under consideration, was left out after an inconsistent season hampered by muscular problems and reduced playing time under interim Madrid coach Alvaro Arbeloa. The omission means Spain will enter the tournament without representation from the country's most decorated club for the first time ever.

When Spain won the World Cup in 2010, there were five players on the roster.

Barcelona winger Lamine Yamal, 18, headlines the squad for his first World Cup but is expected to miss the opening group match against Cape Verde due to a hamstring injury and remains a doubt for the second game against Saudi Arabia. Spain's group also includes Uruguay.

"We are not going to accelerate any process," said De la Fuente. "With the medical reports that we have and how closely we have monitored the process, we believe every player in this squad will be available for the first game, or the second at most in some cases. We are not going to rush anyone, but this is a World Cup and at some point of the competition if we have to risk, we will do it."

On the absence of Real Madrid players, De la Fuente was direct.

"I don't look at where the players come from," he said. "They're national team players, I don't look at one club or another. Rather than focus on absences, let me tell you why Garcia and Pubill are on the list. We felt it was the right time and we made that decision because they're having a great season."

Barcelona's Gavi and Arsenal midfielder Mikel Merino were both included despite returning from lengthy injuries. Atletico Madrid's Marc Pubill, 22, earned his first senior call-up, while Barcelona's Pau Cubarsi, 19, will attend his first major tournament.

Spain 2026 World Cup Roster

Goalkeepers: Unai Simon (Athletic Club), David Raya (Arsenal), Joan Garcia (Barcelona)

Defenders: Marc Cucurella (Chelsea), Alex Grimaldo (Bayer Leverkusen), Pau Cubarsi (Barcelona), Aymeric Laporte (Athletic Club), Marc Pubill (Atletico Madrid), Eric Garcia (Barcelona), Marcos Llorente (Atletico Madrid), Pedro Porro (Tottenham)

Midfielders: Pedri (Barcelona), Fabian Ruiz (PSG), Martin Zubimendi (Arsenal), Gavi (Barcelona), Rodri (Manchester City), Alex Baena (Atletico Madrid), Mikel Merino (Arsenal)

Forwards: Mikel Oyarzabal (Real Sociedad), Dani Olmo (Barcelona), Nico Williams (Athletic Club), Yeremy Pino (Crystal Palace), Ferran Torres (Barcelona), Borja Iglesias (Celta Vigo), Victor Munoz (Osasuna), Lamine Yamal (Barcelona)

Barcelona winger Lamine Yamal is unlikely to play in Spain's opening World Cup group match against Cape Verde on June 15, as he works through a hamstring injury. Sources familiar with his recovery also list him as a significant doubt for the June 21 fixture against Saudi Arabia.

The Spanish Football Association has maintained close contact with Barcelona throughout Yamal's rehabilitation. RFEF medical staff have made regular visits to monitor the 18-year-old's progress, and club officials met with the federation on Friday to outline a recovery program.

Yamal sustained the injury during a La Liga win over Celta Vigo last month. Barcelona confirmed he would follow a conservative treatment plan, ending his club season early with the World Cup as his target for return.

Spain's remaining group fixtures are against Saudi Arabia on June 21 and Uruguay on June 26. The national team also has two pre-tournament friendlies, against Iraq in Coruna on June 4 and Peru in Puebla on June 8. Spain's 26-man squad will be announced May 25.

Despite missing time due to pubalgia earlier in the season, Yamal posted 24 goals and 16 assists across 45 appearances as Barcelona defended their La Liga title. The 2025 Ballon d'Or runner-up has scored six goals in 25 senior appearances for Spain since debuting at age 16 and was central to Spain's Euro 2024 victory.

His availability carries added sensitivity given an ongoing dispute between club and country over player management. In September, Barcelona coach Hansi Flick publicly criticized Spain after Yamal returned from an international break with a groin injury.

"Maybe when we talk about taking care of young players, it's things like that," Flick said. "I'm very sad about this."

Spain coach Luis de la Fuente pushed back on those claims.

"Here, we take zero risks," De la Fuente said. "Whoever comes in, comes in healthy, fit to play. And when they go back home, it is because we have judged there was a risk in staying with us."

With the World Cup opening next month and Lamine Yamal starring alongside Lionel Messi, David Beckham, Zinedine Zidane, Jude Bellingham and Timothee Chalamet in Adidas's $67 million "Backyard Legends" commercial, the story of how the German sportswear giant secured the Barcelona teenager has become one of the defining brand coups in modern football. The parallel to Messi's own defection from Nike two decades ago is an example of history repeating itself.

Adidas secured Yamal in February 2024 after a pitch built around a video message recorded inside Inter Miami's dressing room. Messi, one of the greatest players of all time and a lifelong Adidas athlete, addressed the teenager personally.

"I only wanted to tell you that we would be thrilled to see you joining our Adidas family," Messi said.

Nike attempted to counter with a personal appeal from Kylian Mbappe, the biggest name on its roster, but it had little impact. Yamal had idolized Messi since childhood and the choice was not close. The symmetry is striking as Barcelona has long been a Nike club, yet both Messi and Yamal signed with Adidas, the sponsor of both the Spanish and Argentine national teams.

Since that original signing, Yamal's relationship with Adidas has expanded well beyond football boots. In August 2025 he was elevated to global ambassador for Adidas Originals, extending his reach into lifestyle and streetwear. He also signed a product collaboration with American Eagle in January 2026, marking his formal entry into the North American fashion market. His Instagram following has grown from 24.7 million in January 2025 to 42.2 million today, a 71% increase in roughly 16 months.

His long-term future at Barcelona is also settled. In May 2025, Yamal signed a contract extension through June 30, 2031, with a $1.09 billion (€1 billion) buyout clause. The deal Jorge Mendes had publicly teased in January 2025 was completed on terms that bore little resemblance to what seemed fair when his previous extension was negotiated in October 2023.

The story of how Adidas first landed Messi remains one of the most instructive cautionary tales in sports marketing. In the early 2000s, a teenage Messi wore Nike by default as Barcelona's kit supplier and held a modest junior contract with the brand. The breaking point came around 2005 when his father Jorge reportedly requested additional training gear and tracksuits. The request was either ignored or lost between Nike's Iberian and South American offices, and the family interpreted the silence as a fundamental lack of respect.

Adidas moved immediately, offering a reported $800,000 per year alongside the personal attention Nike had failed to provide. When Messi officially signed in February 2006, Nike pursued legal action in Spain claiming a binding agreement existed. The court ruled against Nike, finding the company held only a commitment letter rather than a finalized contract. Messi signed a lifetime deal with Adidas in 2017.

Nearly two decades later, Adidas used that same asset to close the Yamal deal. The brand rented a large office in Barcelona, flew in senior executives and opened the meeting with the Messi video. It worked for the same reason it did the first time: Adidas understood what the player valued before Nike did.

“When Messi steps away, whenever that might be, Yamal will be the face of Adidas,” said Mayowa Quadri, Head of Brand at VERSUS, to the Observer. “It will be the Lamine Yamal brand.” 

Nike lost Messi over a tracksuit request. It lost Yamal to a laptop and a two-minute video. The brand on the other side of both decisions now has the two of them headlining the same global campaign ahead of the world's biggest soccer tournament. 

A new ESPN documentary reveals the frantic behind-the-scenes effort that secured Lionel Messi's international future with Argentina, including a highlight reel on VHS tape, a desperate phone book search through Rosario and a hastily arranged friendly match organized specifically to tie him to La Albiceleste before Spain could act.

When the 13-year-old Messi arrived at Barcelona's La Masia academy in 2000, Spain's youth coaching staff quickly recognized his potential. With Argentina showing no interest, youth coach Gines Melendez asked Messi's Barca teammates and coaches to convince him to commit to La Roja.

"I imagined my national team being completely invincible," Melendez said.

Messi's representative Horacio Gaggioli seized an opportunity in late 2002 when Argentina coach Marcelo Bielsa and assistant Claudio Vivas visited Barcelona. Gaggioli arranged a VHS tape of Messi's highlights and delivered it personally to Vivas at the team hotel.

"He doesn't just play well, he's incredible," Vivas told Bielsa after viewing the footage. Bielsa's reaction upon watching: "But this kid is unbelievable."

Despite the tape's impact, youth coach Hugo Tocalli chose not to include Messi in Argentina's 2003 Under-17 World Cup squad in Finland. Argentina lost the semifinal 3-2 to Spain, a team that included Messi's Barcelona teammate Cesc Fabregas. The Spanish team's chef then confronted Tocalli at dinner.

"If you would've brought the kid from Barcelona, you would've been champions," the chef told him. "That hit me hard, like someone had stabbed me with a dagger," Tocalli recalled.

That night, Tocalli resolved to act. AFA team manager Omar Souto was assigned to locate the Messi family. With no contact information available, Souto obtained a Rosario phone directory and called every listed Messi household until he reached Lionel's grandmother, who provided a chain of numbers eventually leading to his father Jorge in Barcelona.

"Finally you've remembered about my son," Jorge told Souto. "He wants to play for Argentina."

The AFA's fax to Barcelona confirming the call-up misspelled his name as "Leonel Mecci." A friendly against Paraguay was then arranged at Argentinos Juniors' stadium on June 29, 2004, the anniversary of Argentina's 1986 World Cup triumph. An Argentine referee, Gabriel Brazenas, was called the night before because a FIFA-certified official was needed urgently to make the match official and permanently bind Messi to Argentina under federation rules.

Messi entered in the second half and immediately left onlookers stunned.

"Once he'd dribbled past everyone and scored is when we all saw how easy he made things look," said teammate Pablo Zabaleta. "I think it was when everyone realized we were looking at a phenomenon."

Messi went on to win the 2022 World Cup with Argentina, completing one of sport's most celebrated international careers. For Melendez, the memory carries both pride and wistfulness.

"We gave up because, by the time he'd played for Argentina for the first time, we already knew it was a lost cause," he said. "But there was a huge amount of happiness seeing him win the World Cup in Qatar."

Argentina and Spain have yet to play a World Cup match with Messi in the lineup. Argentina lost to Germany in the 2010 quarterfinals that Spain went on to win. In 2018, both Argentina and Spain were upset in the round of 16 before they could meet in the quarterfinals.

Barcelona advised Lamine Yamal to reduce his public profile midway through the 2025-26 season following a turbulent stretch that affected the 18-year-old winger both on and off the pitch, sources told ESPN. The intervention proved a turning point in what became a title-winning campaign.

Yamal entered the season carrying heightened expectations after a breakout year that led him to become the world's most valuable player at a market value of €200 million and the second ranked player according to The Guardian Top 100. A persistent groin injury complicated his form, and a public dispute between Barcelona and the Spanish national team over his availability added further friction.

An October defeat at Real Madrid's Bernabeu Stadium deepened the challenges. Yamal had jokingly suggested before the Clasico that Madrid "rob," and after Madrid won, several Real players confronted him over the remarks. The crowd, which had previously cheered Yamal as a Spain international, jeered him throughout.

Sources told ESPN that the fallout from that game prompted club officials to advise Yamal to pull back from certain public commitments. Those same sources stressed his activities away from football had never directly hurt his focus or performances, but a change in approach was considered necessary.

A personal matter added to an already difficult period. Yamal had gone through a public breakup with Argentine singer Nicki Nicole around the same time.

"He is learning to deal with the audience, the shouting and whistles from spectators," Barcelona assistant coach Marcus Sorg said. "Today it was not so easy for him."

Once Yamal recalibrated, his form responded. He finished the season with 16 goals and 11 assists before a torn hamstring ended his campaign in April. His 1.07 goal contributions per 90 minutes led all of LaLiga, placing him ahead of Real Madrid's Kylian Mbappe.

In February, after scoring his first career hat trick against Villarreal, Yamal acknowledged the difficult months he had endured.

"I didn't feel great earlier this season," he said. "There was the problem and, generally, I wasn't happy. It was a mix of many things. You could tell."

Spain forward Nico Williams was substituted in the 37th minute of Athletic Club's 1-0 home loss to Valencia on Sunday with an apparent hamstring injury, raising concerns about his availability for the World Cup. Williams was replaced by his brother Inaki Williams at San Mames stadium.

Athletic Club did not immediately release details on the nature of the injury. Williams had already missed several weeks earlier this season due to a separate injury.

"He was limping a lot. He hadn't felt that type of pain before," Inaki Williams said. "It's concerning considering the moment we are right now. Let's wait and hope for the best possible scenario."

The 23-year-old is a key figure in Spain's attack alongside Barcelona's Lamine Yamal, who is also currently sidelined with an injury. Spain coach Luis de la Fuente is scheduled to announce a 55-name preliminary World Cup squad on Monday.

Spain were drawn in Group H of the expanded 48-team tournament alongside Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia and Uruguay. The World Cup is hosted jointly by the United States, Canada and Mexico this summer.

Spain currently have the best World Cup odds to win the tournament ahead of France, England, Brazil and Argentina.

Barcelona announced Thursday that Lamine Yamal will miss the remainder of the LaLiga season after sustaining a torn hamstring. The 18-year-old winger is expected to recover in time for Spain's World Cup opener on June 15.

The injury occurred during Wednesday's 1-0 victory over Celta Vigo at Spotify Camp Nou, when Yamal scored from the penalty spot. Club medical staff confirmed a conservative treatment plan, ruling out surgery.

Spain begins their World Cup campaign against Cape Verde in Atlanta in 53 days. La Roja, considered among the tournament favorites, will also face Saudi Arabia and Uruguay in Group H.

Yamal's absence complicates Barcelona's title run, though the Catalan club holds a substantial nine-point cushion over second-place Real Madrid with six matches remaining. The sides meet in a pivotal Clasico on May 10 at Spotify Camp Nou.

Barcelona are also without Raphinha, further thinning their attacking options. The club will lean on Ferran Torres, Robert Lewandowski and Marcus Rashford during the stretch run. Raphinha is targeting a return for the Clasico.

Despite dealing with a sports hernia at various points this season, Yamal appeared in 45 competitions across all competitions. He finishes with 24 goals and 17 assists.

Remaining fixtures include road trips to Getafe, Osasuna, Alaves and Valencia, plus home matches against Real Betis and Real Madrid.