IQ - Soccer Wiretap

Every country in the 2026 FIFA World Cup has now played their first two matches of the group stage and seven countries have qualified for the round of 32.

The biggest surprises on the positive end have been Ghana, Australia, Cape Verde, Sweden and Egypt.

Türkiye has been the biggest disappointment of the tournament as they entered the World Cup with an 80 percent probability of advancing, but have already been eliminated after they failed to produce a result in either of their first two matches. Ecuador, Uruguay and Czechia also began the World Cup with a strong probability of advancing with it now being well under a 50 percent proposition.

Current Polymarket odds for every team to advance to the knockout round:

• Colombia: 100%* (+12% from 88%)
• Mexico: 100%* (+9% from 91%)
• United States: 100%* (+16% from 84%)
• Germany: 100%* (+4% from 96%)
• France: 100%* (+4% from 96%)
• Norway: 100%* (+15% from 85%)
• Argentina: 100%* (+4% from 96%)
• Canada: 100% (+16% from 84%)
• Brazil: 100% (+3% from 97%)
• Switzerland: 100% (+6% from 94%)
• Morocco: 100% (+13% from 87%)
• Japan: 100% (+21% from 79%)
• Netherlands: 100% (+10% from 90%)
• Spain: 100% (+3% from 97%)
• England: 100% (+4% from 96%)
• Portugal: 100% (+3% from 97%)
• Egypt: 100% (+27% from 73%)
• Ghana: 100% (+50% from 50%)
• Ivory Coast: 98% (+19% from 79%)
• Austria: 96% (+15% from 81%)
• Croatia: 95% (+12% from 83%)
• Belgium: 94% (0% change from 94%)
• Sweden: 93% (+30% from 63%)
• South Korea: 93% (+24% from 69%)
• Australia: 91% (+43% from 48%)
• Paraguay: 88% (+24% from 64%)
• Algeria: 81% (+13% from 68%)
• Scotland: 75% (+5% from 70%)
• Cape Verde: 72% (+41% from 31%)
• Bosnia and Herzegovina: 70% (+3% from 67%)
• Senegal: 69% (-2% from 71%)
• Iran: 60% (-2% from 62%)
• DR Congo: 56% (+13% from 43%)
• Uruguay: 37% (-50% from 87%)
• Saudi Arabia: 32% (-5% from 37%)
• Czechia: 25% (-45% from 70%)
• Ecuador: 24% (-65% from 89%)
• South Africa: 16% (-21% from 37%)
• Qatar: 13% (-9% from 22%)
• Uzbekistan: 6% (-27% from 33%)
• Curacao: 6% (-2% from 8%)
• New Zealand: 6% (-26% from 32%)
• Iraq: 4% (-12% from 16%)
• Haiti: Out (-12% from 12%)
• Turkiye: Out (-80% from 80%)
• Jordan: Out (-19% from 19%)
• Tunisia: Out (-39% from 39%)
• Panama: Out (-29% from 29%)

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The United States men's national team lost 2-1 to Germany at Soldier Field on Saturday in their final pre-World Cup friendly, but manager Mauricio Pochettino said the result does not diminish his confidence heading into the tournament.

Kai Havertz put Germany ahead with a close-range header inside two minutes. Antonee Robinson answered with a spectacular full volley from outside the penalty area to level the score before Leroy Sane's 57th-minute strike proved the winner.

"I was thinking we were lucky… it was an amazing challenge for us," said Pochettino. "To see how we react, to see how we show character, show togetherness and play under pressure. In that moment I was upset (to concede), of course, but it was good for us to see the reaction of the team. The reaction was amazing."

Robinson, who celebrated his goal with a backflip, departed in the 62nd minute with cramps. Goalkeeper Matt Freese, expected to start at the World Cup, played the full 90 minutes. Pochettino held all 11 starters through the 62nd minute before rotating freely.

The result extends the program's winless run against European opponents on official FIFA match dates to 12 games, a stretch dating back to March 2021.

Midfielder Tyler Adams credited the physical nature of the contest as useful preparation.

"The result didn't go our way and to concede that early makes it difficult," said Adams. "But we showed character and energy and resilience.

"The guys were going at it like a World Cup final and that's what we wanted to see. We want to show our skill and quality, but we will also be combative and fighting and winning duels. If I see one of my guys kicked, I'll be going straight after them."

The United States open Group D against Paraguay in Los Angeles on June 12 and are +100 to win and +245 to tie, according to the latest World Cup odds. The United States are 39 percent favorites to win Group D on Polymarket.

France enters the 2026 World Cup with the most valuable roster in the tournament at $1.76 billion, according to squad valuation data from Transfermarkt, with England ($1.507 billion) and Spain ($1.449 billion) ranked second and third.

Portugal, Germany, and Brazil round out the six nations surpassing the $1 billion threshold in total squad value.

Spain's Lamine Yamal and Norway's Erling Haaland share the top individual valuation at $238 million. Haaland alone accounts for roughly 33 percent of Norway's total $691 million squad value. Kylian Mbappe ranks third among individual players and leads France's roster.

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia ranks seventh among individual players but will not appear in the tournament after Georgia failed to qualify.

2026 World Cup Squad Valuations

1. France: $1.760 billion
2. England: $1.507 billion
3. Spain: $1.449 billion
4. Portugal: $1.173 billion
5. Germany: $1.148 billion
6. Brazil: $1.049 billion
7. Netherlands: $962.78 million
8. Argentina: $940.13 million
9. Norway: $691.15 million
10. Belgium: $624.34 million
11. Ivory Coast: $610.54 million
12. Morocco: $561.43 million
13. Senegal: $543.84 million
14. Turkiye: $543.61 million
15. Sweden: $492.18 million
16. Uruguay: $466.10 million
17. Croatia: $448.16 million
18. United States: $438.90 million
19. Ecuador: $432.63 million
20. Switzerland: $382.49 million
21. Colombia: $350.46 million
22.Japan: $320.74 million
23. Algeria: $295.44 million
24. Austria: $278.53 million
25. Ghana: $269.50 million
26. Canada: $226.15 million
27. Mexico: $220.63 million
28. Czechia: $216.41 million
29. Scotland: $195.79 million
30. Paraguay: $176.70 million
31. Bosnia-Herzegovina: $174.34 million
32. DR Congo: $165.49 million
33. South Korea: $159.91 million
34. Egypt: $133.95 million
35. Uzbekistan: $98.13 million
36. Australia: $89.07 million
37. Tunisia: $80.44 million
38. Haiti: $64.29 million
39. Cape Verde: $62.68 million
40. South Africa: $56.64 million
41. Saudi Arabia: $46.78 million
42. Panama: $39.73 million
43. New Zealand: $39.50 million
44. Iran: $36.86 million
45. Curacao: $29.65 million
46. Iraq: $24.38 million
47. Jordan: $23.58 million
48. Qatar: $22.92 million

Folarin Balogun has spent his career defying the obvious path. Born in New York, raised in London, developed at Arsenal, broken out on loan at Reims, and sold to Monaco for €30 million in 2023, the 23-year-old striker arrives at his first World Cup as one of the United States men's national team's most important attacking threats.

Last season at Monaco, Balogun recorded 13 goals and four assists in Ligue 1 while adding five goals across 10 Champions League appearances. That form has positioned him as a decisive weapon for Mauricio Pochettino's side as the tournament opens on home soil.

Balogun embraces the weight of that expectation.

"My role is to finish games, to deliver in high-pressure moments," he said. "In any card game, there's always that one card that can decide everything. I see myself like that."

The striker said pressure has been a constant throughout his career and that he has learned to treat it as fuel rather than burden.

"I wouldn't want it any other way," Balogun said of the scrutiny strikers face. "It's high pressure, but also high reward. I want to be remembered as someone who was decisive in big moments, and to do that you have to embrace the pressure."

That composure, he said, was forged through experience rather than natural ease.

"It comes from experiencing both good and bad times," he said. "I've learned to stay neutral, not get too high or too low."

Balogun said the most significant lesson his career in Europe has delivered is adaptability, a quality he now considers central to his identity both on and off the pitch.

"Living abroad for the last few years, being around different cultures, and putting yourself in uncomfortable situations teaches you to adjust," he said. "Now I feel comfortable with that."

When asked what emotion surfaces first when he imagines the World Cup stage, his answer was immediate.

"Excitement," said Balogun. "It's about doing well, making people proud, and making myself proud."

U.S. Soccer formally opened the Arthur M. Blank National Training Center on a 200-acre site south of Atlanta in early May, giving the federation a permanent home for the first time as the US men's national team prepares for this summer's FIFA World Cup. 

The facility, which cost $250 million, spans more than 400,000 square feet and includes 17 outdoor playing surfaces, 20 locker rooms, 19 meeting rooms, two indoor courts, and a 10,000-square-foot gym. More than 350 federation employees will work on site daily, consolidating all national coaching, high-performance, and administrative staff under one roof.

"It is best in the world, in my opinion," former sporting director Matt Crocker told ESPN before his departure from the federation in April. "It's going to be pretty incredible from our national teams' perspectives, but obviously also coach education, refereeing, community usage; we want it to be the home of soccer in America."

The project was funded through a combination of sources, including a $50 million donation from Atlanta NFL and MLS owner Arthur Blank, corporate backing from Coca-Cola, and land donated by Chick-fil-A CEO Dan Cathy. Ground broke on the site in 2024.

All 27 US Soccer national teams will have access to the facility, including nine extended national teams. The center features elevated wheelchair viewing decks, dedicated power soccer charging areas, and customized locker rooms to accommodate those programs.

Local organizations are already seeing benefits. Neil McNab, executive director of Atlanta's Rush Union Soccer, said youth players have been invited in for events and described the facility as a catalyst for the broader regional soccer community.

"There's an aura around the complex," McNab said. "This is not the finish line. This is a starting point."

Aston Villa and Sunderland dramatically outperformed their underlying metrics during the 2025-26 Premier League season, while Wolverhampton Wanderers produced the division's most extreme negative gap between expected and actual points, according to data from Understat.

Villa finished fourth with 65 points despite underlying metrics projecting just 51.07, a positive gap of nearly 14 points. The figures suggest Villa's results were driven by exceptional finishing efficiency, elite goalkeeping, or a combination of both rather than consistent process-driven performance.

Sunderland's debut top-flight campaign produced an equally striking result. The newly promoted side collected 54 points against an xPTS of just 42.03, nearly 12 points above projection, making their seventh-place finish one of the season's most surprising outcomes.

At the other end of the table, Wolves finished with just 20 points despite underlying metrics projecting 35.44, a shortfall of more than 15 points. The gap points to chronic problems converting chances and preventing goals in ways that defied statistical probability. Leeds and Crystal Palace also fell well short of their projections, underperforming by 9.50 and 8.88 points respectively.

Among the top three, Manchester United showed the largest overperformance gap at +6.55, finishing with 71 points against a projection of 64.45. Arsenal's title, by contrast, was the most process-backed of the three, with the smallest overperformance margin among the top sides at +5.13, suggesting their 85-point haul reflected genuine dominance rather than favorable variance.

Chelsea's 10th-place finish represented one of the more damaging underperformances in the division. Their xPTS of 58.85 projected a likely European contender; their actual return of 52 points left them outside the continental places entirely.

2025-26 Premier League: Actual Points vs. xPTS

1. Arsenal: 85 (79.87 xPTS, +5.13)
2. Manchester City: 78 (73.95 xPTS, +4.05)
3. Manchester United: 71 (64.45 xPTS, +6.55)
4. Aston Villa: 65 (51.07 xPTS, +13.93)
5. Liverpool: 60 (61.54 xPTS, -1.54)
6. Bournemouth: 57 (60.33 xPTS, -3.33)
7. Sunderland: 54 (42.03 xPTS, +11.97)
8. Brighton: 53 (55.35 xPTS, -2.35)
9. Brentford: 53 (57.24 xPTS, -4.24)
10. Chelsea: 52 (58.85 xPTS, -6.85)
11. Fulham: 52 (45.08 xPTS, +6.92)
12. Newcastle United: 49 (54.83 xPTS, -5.83)
13. Everton: 49 (46.17 xPTS, +2.83)
14. Leeds United: 47 (56.50 xPTS, -9.50)
15. Crystal Palace: 45 (53.88 xPTS, -8.88)
16. Nottingham Forest: 44 (42.24 xPTS, +1.76)
17. Tottenham: 41 (49.25 xPTS, -8.25)
18. West Ham: 39 (43.49 xPTS, -4.49)
19. Burnley: 22 (24.31 xPTS, -2.31)
20. Wolves: 20 (35.44 xPTS, -15.44)

When Liverpool signed Mohamed Salah from Roma for $49 million in the summer of 2017, few outside Anfield took notice. The Egyptian had managed just two goals in 19 appearances during an earlier stint at Chelsea. The signing was not driven by traditional scouting, as it was instead the product of data analysis.

Salah's transfer has since become the defining example of how analytics transformed soccer recruitment, a ripple effect still felt across Europe today.

The signing almost did not happen as manager Jurgen Klopp preferred Julian Brandt of Bayer Leverkusen. But Liverpool's recruitment committee, led by technical director Michael Edwards and director of research Ian Graham, built a data-driven case that proved impossible to dismiss.

"He came out as the best wide forward in Europe aged 24 or under," Graham told The Athletic. "Mo came with the baggage of having failed in the Premier League, but our data analysis helped us to understand that we could ignore that."

The foundation for that approach had been laid years earlier when Fenway Sports Group purchased Liverpool in 2010, bringing a data-led philosophy borrowed from their success in American baseball. FSG's John Henry had helped end the Boston Red Sox's 86-year World Series drought in 2004 using statistical analysis.

Luke Bornn, who served as Roma's head of analytics in 2015 when Salah was on loan at Fiorentina, said the numbers were overwhelming even then.

"His data was so overwhelmingly strong that it was pretty clear that the option to buy was an absolute no-brainer," Bornn said. "It was just a case of looking at this guy's ability to progress the ball."

Liverpool were not alone in pioneering data-driven recruitment. Arsenal had purchased analytics firm StatDNA in 2012, while Brighton and Brentford built entire club structures around statistical modeling. But Liverpool's combination of financial resources and analytical rigor, validated spectacularly by Salah's subsequent impact, forced the rest of the game to pay attention.

"Liverpool were not the first team to use data," Bornn said. "But going in with Ian Graham and Michael Edwards at the highest level, I think that's really what raised the attention. How many articles were written about AZ in the Netherlands over the last decade? Very few. How many are written about Liverpool's analytics? Hundreds, and Salah took that to the forefront."

Salah finishes his Liverpool career with 257 goals in 441 games, a record surpassed by only two players in the club's history. His signing remains the clearest illustration of what the sport's data revolution can produce when backed by organizational courage.

"Using data consistently is really hard, because you're consistently overriding your human intuition," Bornn said. "It's that 20 percent, when there's a real disconnect with what you see with your eyes, where you get the benefits."

Arsenal's first Premier League title in 22 years was constructed around a calculated forecast made years earlier, according to reporting from James McNicholas at The Athletic

Arsenal's decision-makers identified what they viewed as a rare opening in the Premier League's competitive cycle. Following detailed analysis of rival squads, contract lengths, age profiles, and managerial timelines, the club projected a "win window" between 2023 and 2027, a period in which Manchester City and Liverpool, winners of eight combined titles, might begin to loosen their hold on the league. Every major decision Arsenal made was built around that projection.

The plan took formal shape in the winter of 2020. With Mikel Arteta under mounting pressure and the team adrift in mid-table, the manager flew to Denver alongside then non-executive director Tim Lewis to meet owner Stan Kroenke. Together, Arteta and Lewis presented a long-term strategy to restore Arsenal as both a modern super-club and an elite football team.

Central to Arsenal's forecasting was anticipating managerial and squad transitions at their primary rivals. The club projected Jurgen Klopp's eventual departure from Liverpool, which materialized ahead of the 2024-25 season, and tracked the aging curves of key players including Mohamed Salah and Virgil van Dijk at Liverpool, and Kevin De Bruyne at Manchester City. Pep Guardiola, who will exit City at the end of the current season after 10 years, was also factored into the club's long-range planning. The projections were not perfectly precise, but they provided a structural framework around which Arsenal built their squad.

That meeting with Kroenke effectively launched the project. Edu's arrival as technical director triggered a complete restructuring of Arsenal's scouting operation, replaced by a Football Intelligence unit tasked with mapping the club's path forward. The unit developed a defined recruitment approach, targeting players aged 23 or under at an initial cost of $46 million or less, assembling a core group designed to mature together. Early foundational signings included Martin Odegaard and Ben White, supplemented by academy star Bukayo Saka.

Three consecutive second-place finishes tested the resolve of Arsenal's plan. The appointment of sporting director Andrea Berta in March 2025 accelerated the final push, shifting Arsenal's approach from development to delivery.

Where defending champion Liverpool invested heavily in elite individual talent, signing Alexander Isak and Florian Wirtz, Arsenal deliberately chose a different path. Rather than pursuing one or two marquee names at maximum cost, the club distributed roughly $330 million across eight first-team signings, prioritizing proven, prime-age players capable of contributing immediately across multiple positions.

Viktor Gyokeres arrived as the chosen center forward at an initial cost of $72 million. Martin Zubimendi, a deal broadly agreed nearly a year in advance, reinforced the midfield. Noni Madueke provided depth on the right wing alongside Saka, while Cristhian Mosquera and Kepa Arrizabalaga added defensive cover. Piero Hincapie was secured through an ingenious deferred payment structure. When Kai Havertz suffered a knee injury on the opening weekend, Arsenal moved quickly to sign Eberechi Eze from Crystal Palace, beating rivals Tottenham to his signature.

Arsenal wanted a deep and complete squad rather than one built around marquee names, with the depth to sustain a title challenge across four competitions simultaneously. In mid-March, Arsenal were still active in all four competitions and the depth was critical in sustaining their play.

The collective strength of the rebuilt squad ultimately carried them over the line. Declan Rice, Gabriel, and David Raya each produced standout individual seasons, while teenagers Myles Lewis-Skelly and 16-year-old Max Dowman contributed in critical moments during the run-in.

Arsenal now turn their attention to the Champions League final against Paris Saint-Germain in Budapest on May 30, where they have the opportunity to complete one of the most ambitious projects in the club's 144-year history.

Mohamed Salah publicly challenged Liverpool's style of play this week, urging the club to reclaim its aggressive attacking identity following a 4-2 defeat at Aston Villa that left the side fifth in the Premier League. Salah posted his remarks on X after coming off the bench at Villa Park on Wednesday.

The loss, which manager Arne Slot described as "damaging," cost Liverpool a chance to secure Champions League qualification with one match remaining.

"Us crumbling to yet another defeat this season was very painful and not what our fans deserve," Salah wrote. "I want to see Liverpool go back to being the heavy metal attacking team that opponents fear and back to being a team that wins trophies. That is the football I know how to play and that is the identity that needs to be recovered and kept for good.

"It cannot be negotiable and everyone that joins this club should adapt to it.

"Winning some games here and there is not what Liverpool should be about. All teams win games.

"Liverpool will always be a club that means a great deal to me and to my family. I want to see it succeed for long after I have moved on.

"As I've always said, qualifying to next season's Champions League is the bare minimum and I will do everything I can to make that happen."

Liverpool legend Steven Gerrard offered a pointed assessment of Salah's remarks on TNT Sports.

"I think that he's sending a message to the outside that things in that Liverpool dressing room are not right, the identity's gone and it's really hurting him to see it in front of his own eyes," said Gerrard. "I'm surprised -- the timing, one game to go, his last game for Liverpool. He very rarely speaks. But that is quite damning to the Liverpool manager and the staff in terms of where this team's at."

Salah, 33, departs Anfield after nine years at season's end. His honors at the club include two Premier League titles, two FA Cups and a Champions League. Liverpool's fate in Europe's top competition now rests on their final match against Brentford on May 24.

Bernardo Silva is preparing to play his final matches for Manchester City after nine years, departing as one of the club's most decorated players. The Portuguese captain sat down for a wide-ranging interview reflecting on his tenure before what he hopes will be a trophy-filled farewell.

Silva, 31, accumulated 457 appearances and won six Premier League titles, two FA Cups, five League Cups, the UEFA Champions League and the Club World Cup during his time at the Etihad Stadium. He came close to leaving on multiple occasions, including serious interest from clubs in Spain and Italy in 2021 and 2022, and a substantial offer from Saudi Arabia in 2023.

Manager Pep Guardiola played a central role in convincing Silva to stay each time.

"Pep was one of the biggest reasons that I stayed," Silva said. "They never allowed me to leave. But I'm really happy it didn't happen then because I would have missed out on the treble, winning four in a row and a lot of fantastic things."

As he prepares for his final matches, Silva described the philosophy that defined his game at City.

"I know that for people who aren't football players, who don't work every day on the tactical side of the game, the small details don't really matter," said Silva. "They want to see the flair, the magic, and I like that as well. When I was a kid, my idol was Ronaldinho because of that.

"But I really enjoy the process of doing things well. Doing things well means every little detail is really important. Each of us has our role in the team. If you respect your role, do the little things to the best of your abilities and everyone does a bit of that, and you don't 'overdo', you will have a successful team."

Guardiola has repeatedly praised Silva, calling him a "master" and "one of the cleverest players I ever met." Silva described his own approach as instinctive rather than purely tactical.

"I think I'm an intuitive player," Silva said. "Football will always have a tactical side, which is really important, but the intuition and the feeling will always be the most important things in the game. And no matter what Pep tells me, I always follow my heart and my feeling on the game. I feel that's the right thing to do. That's the way I play the game."

The bond between player and manager runs deep after nearly a decade together.

"The way he helped me, supported me and believed in me — even in my first six months when I didn't play that much — was special coming from such a manager," Silva said. "Then with the experiences we had together — the frustrations, the happiness of winning things, the sadness of losing some — we built this personal relationship where I know he really likes me. I'm really grateful for everything that he did for me."

Silva's admiration for Guardiola as a football mind is absolute.

"For sure," he said when asked if Guardiola is a genius. "He never stops thinking about the game. Even when we have a very successful season, he's always finding new ways so that teams can't adapt to us. In terms of offensive concepts, I would say he's by far the best manager I've seen. I don't think there is anyone better."

Silva's most cherished memory remains the 4-0 Champions League semifinal victory over Real Madrid in 2023. City face Chelsea in the FA Cup final Saturday before closing their league campaign against Aston Villa on May 24.

"The nine years have been amazing," Silva said. "It would be lovely to finish with a couple more titles. I want to end on a good note."