RealGM Wiretap
The Premier League's quality this season has sparked debate about whether the league is experiencing a decline or reaching unprecedented competitive depth. Four matches on New Year's Day produced just two goals across 360 minutes of play. Liverpool, Manchester City, Tottenham and Brentford all failed to score in their respective fixtures. The lack of open-play attacking has dropped to its lowest level in over a decade.
Only two Premier League teams this season have posted an expected goal differential of plus-0.5 or better per game. That represents the fewest such teams since 2009 according to Stats Perform data. Every other season in that span featured at least three teams meeting that threshold.
At the bottom of the table, Wolves have collected just six points through 20 games. That total ranks as the second-fewest in Premier League history. Burnley's expected goal differential of minus-1.08 per game would be the third-worst mark to finish a season since 2009.
Betting market power ratings compiled by PitchRank indicate the Premier League remains the strongest league in world soccer. The ratings compare teams across all major European leagues and continental competitions based on match betting lines. The system suggests West Ham would be competitive with Eintracht Frankfurt and that bottom-half Premier League sides match quality with mid-table teams from other top leagues.
Premier League teams have performed strongly in European competition this season. Arsenal defeated Bayern Munich and Atletico Madrid at home. Manchester City beat Napoli at home and Real Madrid on the road. Chelsea defeated Barcelona 3-0 while Newcastle and Tottenham both have better goal differentials in the Champions League than in domestic play.
All six Premier League sides would currently finish in the top 15 of the Champions League league phase. Nottingham Forest have the second-best expected goal differential in the Europa League while Crystal Palace lead the Conference League with an expected goal differential above plus-nine.
The Premier League distributes television revenue more equitably than any other major European league. Among the 30 richest clubs in the world, 16 come from the Premier League according to recent financial reports. The gap between the Big Six and the rest of the league has remained steady at roughly 2.5-to-1 in wage bills for over a decade.
The Big Six controlled 29 percent of the world's 300 most valuable players during the 2014-15 season according to Transfermarkt data analyzed by John Muller. That share remained at 29 percent this season. The rest of the Premier League increased their share of top talent from 7 percent to 18 percent over the same period.
The financial structure allows mid-table Premier League clubs to compete for players who previously joined clubs like AC Milan and Borussia Dortmund. Every Big Six club signed at least one major player from a smaller Premier League team this past summer.
The competitive balance has created a table where just four points separate fifth place from 14th place through 20 games. Whether that represents a league full of good teams or mediocre ones remains the subject of debate.
