“Show the world you can be better than Messi”, said Germany manager Joachim Low when he subbed on then 22-year-Mario Gotze in the 88th minute of the 2014 World Cup Final against Argentina. Gotze’s match winning goal in the 113th minute off Andre Schurrle’s cross was the culmination of a generation of grassroots football foresight and planning. But in an example of how fast the game moves in four years, neither the 26-year-old Gotze nor the 27-year-old Schurrle were named to the current Germany side after each struggled with fitness and form in their years since their Brazil moment.

Belgium carries the burden of a generational rebuild this time around with 15 out of 23 players returning from their 2014 roster, but overarching tactical and ideological battles have largely given away to the pragmatism of a long club season. If 2010 crowned Spain’s tiki taka era, and 2014 legitimized Germany’s counterpress, 2018 is a vestige of the style from four years ago. We look to the club game for cues on on the direction of international football, yet the current dominant pressing style of Tottenham and Liverpool requires a fitness and tactical approach difficult to implement over a few weeks of training and with players already tired from a full season. Thus, most sides will go with the basics of sitting deep and countering with pace, leading to predictable matches and results. 

We will see the product of two embarrassing losses from 2014 in Russia.

Spain’s 5-1 loss against the Netherlands in the 2014 group stages signaled the end of Xavi-taka. Spain reloaded with a new generation of midfielders and attackers to add tempo and pace to their passing foundation and looked to be favorites once again (but then fired manager Julen Lopetegui two days before their opening match against Portugal).

The most memorable match of the tournament was Germany’s 7-1 win over Brazil in the semifinals. The embarrassment prompted Brazil to look internally in hiring former Corinthians manager Tite, who combined Neymar’s match winning individual ability with a modern, European compactness. Pep Guardiola explains that Brazil have always had talent, but Tite “put it together in the right way.”

James Rodriguez used his breakout performance in Brazil to springboard a move to Real Madrid that summer. Although playing further back in midfield and comparing himself to Yaya Toure, 23-year-old Serbian midfielder Sergej Milinkovic-Savic is already rumored for a $177 million transfer move to the Spanish champions. Uruguayan Lucas Torreira, another on the list of potential breakout midfielders, completed his move to Arsenal a day before the World Cup. The two combative midfielders are molded by the press in their ability to keep the ball against higher pressure and find space in transition. 

Meanwhile, Germany are so stacked with talent that Lars Stindl, who scored the match winning goal last year’s Confederations Cup Final, failed to make the 2018 roster. Leroy Sane was another major omission. Low considers himself a footballing visionary, asking himself “what sort of football do we want to be playing in a few years time?” Four years ago, Real Madrid won the Champions League. Real Madrid once again go into the World Cup as European champions. We predicted that Messi would have to carry his side to victory against Germany in the 2014 World Cup Finals, and four years later, Messi will once again be the focal point of Argentina’s attack. Whether in country, club or player, it’s the quality and class that lasts through the years.