Based on form alone, the round of sixteen matchup between Bayern Munich and Juventus would have been best suited for a Champions League semis or finals. Outside of Juventus’ two month hiccup to begin the season, both Max Allegri and Pep Guardiola’s sides have dominated league play with their defined styles. Bayern Munich do go in as favorites as Guardiola teams not only win, but win loudly. It will be a shame for either sides to get knocked out this early, but that is a feature, not a bug, of the Champions League. 

Both Max Allegri and Guardiola sides are distinguished by their innovative use of center midfielders, and this is where the battle over two legs will be won. Guardiola’s obsession with the position is well known, as he’s quoted as saying he would fill a squad with a 1,000 midfielders (or, more simply, to “put the good players in midfield”). Thiago Alcantara was signed from Barcelona for $30 million to be the hand picked conductor of Guardiola’s side. Arturo Vidal, although currently out of form, was the box to box link signed for $40 million last summer in a double move that temporarily weakened Juventus. Mario Gotze was signed for the same amount with a similar knock on effect on Borussia Dortmund. 

The list goes on: Xabi Alonso was a surprise signing and re-emerged as a defensive midfielder/third center back tasked with starting Bayern Munich attacks through long diagonal passes to free the likes of Douglas Costa on the wing. And there’s Javi Martinez, whose versatility in playing defensive midfielder and center back would have been an essential key to Guardiola’s position-less ideals had it not been for injury. Bayern Munich’s midfield was built and assembled with a focus on possession, versatility and intelligence in a span of Guardiola’s two seasons with the team.

While that is an impressive collection of midfielders, last season’s midfield that powered Juventus to the Champions League final, featuring Vidal, Claudio Marchisio, Paul Pogba and Andrea Pirlo was the most powerful in the world. Controlling a match through possession like Bayern Munich is one path, but that Juventus group provided a directness and physicality that allowed Juventus to compete in both Serie A and overachieve in Champions League. The foundation was built on denying opponent’s space in the center of midfield and fast counterattacks. In the spirit of Guardiola’s “play your best players in midfield” mantra, Allegri bended the shape of his side to fit all four players in a diamond formation. 

Allegri repatched his team’s strength as Juventus started the season in historically poor fashion (Marchisio and summer signing Sami Khedira were both injured as well). As nuanced as tactics are, it is sometimes as easy as this: Juventus are unbeaten in the 12 matches when Khedira starts. Pogba deservedly takes the plaudits as the future of the position, but 22 year old Stefano Sturaro’s development into the Marchisio mold cannot be understated (Khedira was a free signing and Sturaro cost just over $6 million). Juventus have won 15 matches in a row in Serie A and haven’t allowed a goal in their last eight, outscoring opponents 17-0 in that span. Combine that with a newfound ease in Champions League and this may be the most confident team heading into the knockout stages.  

Then there’s how much each manager can stomach in the way of risk. Both sides have used three player backlines in league play for different reasons: Bayern Munich uses a 3-4-3 formation to create possession overloads in midfield while still maintaining width. Juventus use a 3-5-2 formation as per Serie A. Yet both sides have switched to a pragmatic four defender backline in Europe to ensure proper width. The round of 16 could represent a display of a three man backline at the highest level in some time. 

The numbers tell their own story in European play: Bayern Munich average 65% possession with 91% accuracy while Juventus account for only 48% possession with 84% passing accuracy (Bayern Munich scored 19 goals compared to Juventus’ six goals in group play). Thiago, Lahm, Vidal and Alonso will try to break down Pogba, Khedira and Marchisio. The battle between Bayern Munich’s unstoppable possession force versus Juventus’ immovable midfield object may not quite predict the future of soccer, but it will feature two contrasting sides at their highest level.

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After agreeing to take over at Manchester City this summer, Guardiola will command the majority of attention over the two legs. Guardiola has won every trophy in Germany in every dominating manner possible. And while his furthering of tactical football over the last two seasons is impressive on its own, a Champions League title would put a stamp on his overarching project and fully bridge the gap from soccer think tank to European champions. We are reminded how fragile brilliance can. In their two knock out stage defeats under Guardiola, Bayern Munich were outscored a combined 10-3 against Real Madrid and Barcelona. 

Allegri has his own legacy at stake as he borders on the world class manager level of Guardiola, Mourinho and beyond. He was linked at Chelsea for some time, but those rumors seem to have quieted as he pledged more seasons to develop Pogba, Sturaro and Paulo Dybala. By that time, Guardiola will no doubt have rebuilt City’s midfield into something tactically flexible, averaging hundreds of passes per match with impossible geometry. Allegri would appear to be the closest Italian manager to Marcello Lippi in his focus on team camaraderie and mentality.

You could ask what changes Bayern Munich have made since last season in terms of addressing their inability to defend counter attacks against higher European opposition. That answer may have lied in the addition of Vidal. But as much as Guardiola experiments in league play, he knows first hand of the dangers of applying this in Europe. Fabio Capello warned Bayern Munich of Juventus’ quick midfielders and strikers and we can envision how the match will play out with Bayern Munich holding possession as Juventus stay compact and hit on counters (this headline from last season describing Juventus as “deep defending and quick countering” is the blueprint to defeat Bayern Munich). This phase is the final wrinkle for Guardiola to solve in Europe. If he finally does, it’s a solution two seasons, and over $100 million, in the making.