Expected goals (xG) is a method developed by Michael Caley for estimating the quality of chances that a team creates or concedes in a match.

The following figures show the xG differential for all 32 nations after the conclusion of the Group Stage of the World Cup.

1. Belgium: 2.00
2. Uruguay: 1.30
3. Spain: 1.20
4. Brazil: 1.13
5. England: 0.97
6. France: 0.73
7. Switzerland: 0.63
8. Croatia: 0.50
9. Senegal: 0.30
10. Sweden: 0.27
11. Russia: 0.10
12. Colombia: 0.07
13. Mexico: 0.07
14. Panama: 0.07
15. Germany: 0.00
16. Japan: -0.03
17. Denmark: -0.03
18. Australia: -0.10
19. Portugal: -0.20
20. Argentina: -0.20
21. Iran: -0.30
22. South Korea: -0.33
23. Poland: -0.33
24. Iceland: -0.47
25. Nigeria: -0.50
26. Peru: -0.60
27. Serbia: -0.63
28. Egypt: -0.67
29. Morocco: -0.70
30. Saudi Arabia: -0.73
31. Costa Rica: -1.13
32. Tunisia: -3.03