Harry Kane had 19 non-penalty league goals last season with an ExpG total of 11.33.

Kane is expected to have a regression of some sort.

The top 15 over-performing player seasons, based on ExpG, from the 2011-12 through 2013-14 seasons declined on average 80 percent from their over-performance the year before. 

Kane has scored just twice over nine matches going back to the beginning of April.